of course meg whitman the ceo of hewlett-packard has been on our air several times talking about that. hp interestingly is also clocking in as the worst performer on the dow so far this year. down 27 cents to 13.77. energy stocks trading lower for the fifth session in a row largely on fiscal cliff worries. a lot of traders worried about a barrage of spending cuts, tax increases that come with that cliff. take a look at we look at conoco phillips, valero energy, marathon oil, exxon mobil, and chevron all in the red. finally, some retailers are among the few winners today. look at walgreens, some of the others here. even american express. anything related to consumer spending appears to be hanging on. that does it for us here. let's get back to headquarters. scott wapner and the fast money

report. >> all right. thanks so much. welcome to the halftime show on this friday. four hours to go until the close. here is where we stand at this hour on wall street. red arrows across the board. the dow is down nearly 70 points. here's what we're following on halftime right now. treasure and trash looking back at 2012's biggest winners and losers. traders tell you what the new year may bring. hi higher tech's ann blinblat joins us with what names to watch in 2013. the top story, over the cliff, where the markets may go unless lawmakers reach an 11th hour deal. with the deadline fast approaching the stakes could not be higher. when the president meets with leaders from both sides of the aisle at the white house in just a few hours. john harwood is on the phone with the very latest. john, what do we know? >> reporter: sot, there appears to be some movement what people

are calling a mini deal or skinny deal that would involve only the tax side of the equation with tax increases for incomes over $400,000 for families which is the president's last offer to john boehner. it would also include things like, that would be temporary like the unemployment extension of unemployment benefits, the extension of the milk subsidies and a couple other things. the main question is over the duration. republicans want it to be short term. democrats are saying it has to be permanent or long term. but it does appear that there is some progress toward the possibility of a deal and this is certain to be discussed at the meeting at the white house this afternoon with leaders and the president although not sure whether they'll be in a position afterwards to openly push it fnchts there was a deal reached in principle when would they vote on it?

>> i think if they made progress at the meeting today and if mitch mcconnell and john boehner decide to take the risk of t advancing this with their members they could vote sunday or monday and it is possible to get done before january first. nobody is betting on this at this point and everybody's omt michel has been sorely tested by the lack of movement over the last week or so but just in the last few hours there is some movement toward the possibility of the deal. >> thanks so much for the very latest there john down in d.c. for us watching the action there. stocks moved off their lows on news of the new offer for the president. we're still setting up for the biggest weekly loss for the stock market in some six weeks. we're trading today with the najarian brothers, mike murphy, and steven wieis. we are moving closer to a deal according to john harwood's reporting.

what do you do with the market today? >> i don't think you do anything based on those headlines. where you want to continue to be is high quality names and ride it out. if you see prices come your way in specific stocks that you twoont step up to, you should do it because once we get through the cliff i think the market's okay. it's off to the races. i would point out in december historically going back to 1928 the markets up an average of 1.5%, and it's up 75% of the time. here we are flat and that takes some of the wind out of the sales. >> you said yesterday for the first time in 30 years no position ness the market. is the most dangerous position today to be short the stock market going into the weekend? >> that would be very dangerous. although what john harwood said about a skinny deal, judge, i think this deal is going to be anorexic. i talked about that over and over again. any of these deals that are struck will be very slight, very small. and likely to be very bad as well. >> does that matter? if you hear the word "deal" is

that ultimately the most important thing? forget what is inside the deal as long as they get a deal. >> the initial reaction is going to be to the word deal so if we get a deal the market should rally on that but then i think what a lot of people are looking at is as you really dig into that what type of deal do we have? are we going to be dealing with again the end of march or april? is it just that three or four-month kick down the road? then you're really going to focus on pullback so people setting up for the next time the democrats and republicans have a stand off and we're getting nowhere. so the key here -- >> this is going to be about the debt ceiling. >> right. >> we can forget about the fiscal cliff here. something will be done. and there will be a look back and they'll correct the tax implications for all of us. but the thing they won't be able to do anything about and that they will actually have to negotiate and get done is the debt ceiling. that is the big thing facing us right now. most likely in the first three weeks of january. >> what makes you give back into the market? what makes you put a position on? >> i think we'll see some panic during the first three weeks of

january. i really do. >> a whoosh down and then start fishing. >> yes. i would like to see that same sort of panic that lifts us into the mid 20s for the vix. i don't want to see that folks but when scott is asking me when would i get back in, i'll get back in because i anticipate that panic because as these guys have proved, they said november 16th. we're not going to go to the end of the line to get this thing approved. they've come all the way to the end of the line. they will do the same thing with the debt ceiling and that is why i think we're going to see a pop in the vix. >> what happens with the stock market? what are you doing today? >> if we get a band-aid or get nothing? that is i guess the bigger question. >> let's try and assume we'll get something. >> if we get something -- >> maybe wishful thinking. >> the word deal in other words any kind of a deal. i think any kind of deal gives us a little pop to the market because we've been selling off based upon the idea that we are going absolutely nowhere. i think the word deal of some kind actually gives the market a little lift. look at the financials the way they're trading.

the financials today when you look at the rest of the market, the broader market you see the sell offs down, and it seems to come right back. you look they continue to hold up and you look at bank of america, citigroup, some of these names continuing to perform reasonably well that, says a lot about the expectation. no deal? i think you'll see everything sold off. >> boehner tried to get something through the house. didn't have the votes. i think the market will be skeptical. you may get a minor pop in the indices but you're not going to get a real pop until it passes the house and the senate. >> next year can certainly be, certainly could start out to be a volatile one for the markets. mike santelli of yahoo finance joins us live with what we can expect. welcome back. it is good to see you again thanks a lot. >> you have been expecting if we do get some kind of deal that will sell right into it you still really believe that given the moves of the market over the last few days? >> you got to tell me exactly

what level we're trading at when we get news of a real deal. when we're down 3% in eight days which is what we are right now you're preselling a little bit of that nervousness that i would have expected to set in after a deal. i felt like if you ramped because you thought a deal was going to happen then you just get ratification of that deal. to me that wasn't in itself a catalyst but at this point i don't really, i think it is kind of neutral if we get some kind of deal. i don't think the market truly wants the grand bargain that investors seem to want. i think the market wants to have this market pushed aside for as long as possible whether a small or big deal. maybe we're not going to get that so

now for the system. you don't have the concerns you usually did when it wasn't just a macro trade or policy trade. >> but the worry has changed to at least cautious optimism though hasn't it about the economy? if you look past the cliff and you starti focusing on the economy at large it looks okay or better. >> i think it does. it looks okay. i think there is a decent chance that the actual underlying economy outperforms into next year. my question is how much has the market kind of pulled that a little bit forward here? i'm going on the premise that

this is a four-year-old, going on four-year-old bull market where you have the across the board earnings lifted that you're going to get and right now it becomes a matter of corporate deal making and corporate use of capital and selling assets. that stuff has to come at this stage of the cycle. >> right. >> if we get cleared of fiscal uncertainty and get the process under way multiples scan go up and you can have a good year. >> let's open it to the floor. continuing the conversation. what is a deal worth for the stock market? let's take that. >> like i say, there is going to be two deals. i want to ask mr. santelli if i can, michael, as far as all the time you've been covering the markets we've basically been on hold for a month here. a full month of december we've been on hold. i believe we'll be on hold for most of the month of january. you take that, two months out of 12, that is 16% of the year. a bunch of these corporations are not going to like that we don't have certainty about the debt ceiling and that negotiations the one that is more troubling to me than this one. how about for you? >> i agree with that. basically, i've been surprised

by the level of a parent kind of corporate hesitancy about their actual business given what is going on in washington. i don't really think that the tangible stakes are that high for most businesses. it just happens to be this overhang. so i do think that is a major concern and really i think that -- >> you can paint it another way. >> hold it. both you guys said that the debt ceiling is a major concern for corporations. >> yep. >> tell me why that is. i'm on the other side of the fence. i don't agree with that. i think once we get, once the corporations know what the bargain is, the grand -- they have some certainty, the biggest risk is this. >> what is the trade-off to raise the spending limit? the trade-off is likely to be the republicans are going to want spending cuts. that is why it is. >> we've been there before with debt ceilings and we've always gotten through. we put the government on hiatus in terms of spending money but we've always gotten through it. to me that is not the seminole issue. if that is i'm happy to be on the other side of the trade. >> i wasn't saying it is an actual issue. i said it was surprised at the

degree to which corporate leaders are saying that that is a big deal. in other words to me to -- >> that pales in every interview i've heard, on cnbc, that paels in comparison. it is an after thought relative to getting the budget situation and tax situation set. that has only come on as an issue recently. you talk about pent up demand for the market over the last month. pent up demand has been in corporations spending their 2 trillion in cash over the last year in advance of settling this situation not the debt ceiling. >> let me also say mike before we let you go just to revisit the to revisit the trade you brought last week which was a winner tan that was long tlt, going long treasuries, that still work for you? >> well it still works i think as long as the process gets dragged out. what the bond market is not going to do is kind of sit there and assume that you're going to get a deal. it is almost seen as a win-win we basically give back a little bit of the gains.

it is worth sitting there while you wait. if you don't get a deal obviously you have a massive decline in the deficit for doing nothing. i do think it works right now but i don't see a lot of upside. it is a place to hide. >> good stuff as always. see you on the other side of the new year. wish you the best. >> thank you. >> mike santelli yahoo finance. let me pose the question as i did before in this segment this way. how much is a deal worth to the stock market? >> i think a deal is worth probably 500 points in the stock market if for no other reason than the fact if you're talking about certainty right now we're under this cloud. we have no certainty whatsoever. so for that reason i think stocks like apple, for instance, one of those we've been talking about for a month. why are they selling off apple? fundamentally as the story changed? absolutely not. a hundred and some odd dollars lower than it was. >> i think a deal gets us to 4% to 5% we've given back, gets the s&p back up to its high of 1475. >> i think it's also what it checks on the down side. we're a consumer driven economy. you can see the consumer confidence number falling off the cliff, very disappointing

christmas season we've heard so my bottom line is that if we don't get a deal minimal down side if we do get a deal it's off to the races we're in a bull market. >> doc, you disagree? >> i have to. unfortunately. and that is why for the first time in 31 years i have no positions on going into this. again, to pete's point, could we see that 500-point rally in the dow? yes. i'll disagree with steven, however. as you said, consumer confidence falling off a cliff. these guys are going to have a lot less money to spend as well if this deal doesn't happen. that's why i say you can see a thousand point drop like that. >> all right. when halftime comes back stocks on track for their fifth day of losses. why one top strategist believes the pullback is a big buying opportunity. and can facebook redeem itself in 2013? one stock two opinions. we debate it. later, she has the knack for picking tech winners. where silicon valley pioneer ann winblad sees promise in the new year. back after this.

with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens and i helped create fidelity's options platform. it's one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. your doctor will say get smart about your weight. that's why there's glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart. a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. what starts with adding a friend... ♪ ...could end with adding a close friend. the lexus december to remember sales event is on. this is the pursuit of perfection.

welcome back. check out herbal life hlo. no news on this name today but the news might be that it's six bucks off its low. about 12 bucks still below where it was when bill ackman famously came out with the presentation and defended the company.

herbal life has gone back on the aggressive day january 10th. herbal life up one of the best performing in the market today. i have to correct something pete najarian said. you said we have no certainty. >> do that at your own risk. >> we have a lot of certainty. we are certain there is uncertainty . there you go. a great call actually. >> count on sully to shine some light. >> i'm tired. give me a break. >> i want to write that down. let's talk herbal life. it is not the only stock that's been hammered that's come back this week as the end of the year has approached. what in the world would do you with this one if anything? >> i think you've got a real shot here. i think jimmy cramer said it when he talked about tortious interference and so forth. basically they're going to be going after ackman and the folks that have come after them so

aggressively. i think they've hired up david boyes law firm, did microsoft and the u.s. and bush vs. gore. this is the law firm from that. i think this is a big deal and they're going to go after him hard. >> you're telling me you'd buy the stock? >> i did a few days ago but unfortunately liquidated it two days ago when it was 28. i mean, this stock traded down into the 25, 24 range. >> it is not only that. the stock has come from 50 down to 30. people are taking gains on their shorts. >> stocks may be down for a fifth straight day but our next guest sees that as an opportunity to buy, alec young, global equity strategist. >> great to be here. >> we gave the shorter-term traders something to chew on. if you are a longer-term investor are you focused at all on the cliff and should you be? >> i am. because it is going to determine my entry point. frankly the worse it gets the better because it means i get to buy stock cheaper.

the cliff is all about when do you get long? i think it is the risk reward is nicely set up for risk assets into 2013. it's just a question of do you jump in now or does the cliff give you a better buying opportunity next month? >> you are probably a good guy to ask the same question i asked the traders. how much is a deal potentially worth to the stock market? if you're looking at entry you need to know that question. >> it is really just a mini deal. relative to the very elevated uncertainty we've been dealing with it is a positive. i would agree with these guys. we test the higher end of the recent range, 1450 on the s&p. we do have the debt ceiling situation. i think that needs to get worked out before we break out to a new recovery high above the september 14th high of 1474. >> you have an aggressive target as well for year end next year. 1550 on the s&p. we think we'll get a deal. we think we have a more certain environment than it looks like today. a move up to 400,000 would be great. all these things are positive.

they're all positive. >> how do those translate into corporate earnings delivering what you need them to deliver? >> we can't have a, you know, an air pocket blowing into the consumer's wallet. those things help to shore up the people that buy the products that drive the corporate earnings and, you know, there's a lot of corporate tax breaks involved. the valuations are reasonable. we think consensus earnings at 10% for next year. still a little high. but they do continue to climb. we think the terrible value in the treasury market is also bullish for equities. obviously cash isn't much of an option. you put it all together and we think high single digit type year is likely for stocks next year. >> weis? how does it sound to you? >> i think the first quarter is going to be a little tough and it is off to the races. the u.s. economy is clicking. we have housing, autos. those are lynch pins for the consumer but my question to you is how are you calculating in what is going on in europe? do you see them spending again or do you see the austerity

hitting their economy further? >> that is a great point. we do see bullish influences coming from overseas. we think this is kind of fading. we want to be exposed to china. we think the soft landing is real. we stabilized the 7.4 print in q 3 we think was the bottom. all of those things lead us to be believers in the china story. on europe we've been early and big believers in the draghi road map. yes they're in a mild recession. we think they come out of it in the second half. >> which is why i'm going more toward the second half. >> but the debt markets, the sovereign credit markets we think remain stable. and u.s. equities are more correlated to the spanish and italian bond yields than they are to european gdp. we likehe european influence next year. >> let's say your focus is more on the united states right? if you're buying stocks, you believe your thesis that we're going to get to 1550 at a minimum consumer discretionary is tops on your list the second best performing sector this year behind financials. you think that continues to work

why? >> we've seen profit taking on the cliff but by the same token this is an area that has the most to gain if we get a cliff deal and that is our base case. we also like industrials. there we don't think the china recovery and the better tone in europe are fully priced. industrials traded at market multiple. we think when it is a risk on pro cyclical environment you should see industrials trade at a bit of a premium to the market. >> why wouldn't you say financials? where are financials on your list? that would be a sector i would look at. >> i'll be honest with you. we missed that one. the financials has been a good a way to play this whole dynamic as anything. we don't always bat a thousand. >> forget this year. you missed it. do you get on next year? >> one of the issues, the loan releases have been a big driver. they're running out of room. the housing market improves the over all credit quality in the u.s. improves. there is a good case to be made for being overweight financials. right now we're neutral and

frankly it hasn't been the greatest call. >> all right. good to see you. happy new year. guys? 1550 is the target. weis you think that is conservative. pete? >> i don't think it is conservative at all. i think potentially, i mean, i think you talked about missing the banks. i don't think you've missed the banks at all. the banks have a lot more room to the upside. i love your industrial call as well because i am a big believer in the china story, the stabilizing housing market and the spending numbers over there. for all those reasons i think 1550 is conservative. >> let's do the biggest pops and drops in midday. pete, going to you again. >> citigroup came out with negative calls on this one. lowered some of the estimates. lowered the target. i think when you look at this company right now you're looking at a pe level above most of its peers. for that reason it probably has more to the down side. >> your broelgt brother is watching ldk today. >> solar stocks up about 4%. these are some of those that murph is talking about where you have shorts covering to take those gains. this stock up 12% today. >> what's happened with

fastenal? >> just on a technical breakout. a big move over the course of the last week to week and a half. this is one although i love the industrial space for next year this is trading 33, 34 times earnings. i'd be taking money off the table looking to get short. >> weis? walter is yours. >> walter has dropped the last couple days because it moved up. trading off on the cliff but if you believe in what we just heard you have to own the stock. they are the most leveraged to the prices. >> want cliff protection? we head to the pitch to find out how traders are shielding their portfolios. barnes & noble shares rallying today after a british company buys a stake in the nook. is the excitement justified? some answers in our top three trades when we come back.

...so as you can see, geico's customer satisfaction is at 97%. mmmm tasty. and cut! very good. people are always asking me how we make these geico adverts. so we're taking you behind the scenes. this coffee cup, for example, is computer animated. it's not real. geico's customer satisfaction is quite real though. this computer-animated coffee tastes dreadful. geico. 15 minutes could save you 15 % or more on car insurance. someone get me a latte will ya, please? you know it even after all these years. but your erectile dysfunction - you know,that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use

helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, seek immediate medical help for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or if you have any allergic reactions such as rash, hives, swelling of the lips, tongue or throat, or difficulty breathing or swallowing, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a 30-tablet free trial. we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning,

plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. executor of efficiency. you can spot an amateur from a mile away... while going shoeless and metal-free in seconds. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. now this...will work. [ male announcer ] just like you, business pro. just like you. go national. go like a pro.

it is time now for our top three trades. first up nokia share holders unhappy with the details of the patent dispute settlement with research in motion. nokia is getting an initial payment of $65 million from r.i.m. for the right to use the patents. pete, the stock is down 3%. >> it is but i think when you take a look over the last month the huge gains it's made you are getting a little bit of that selling pressure into this right now. this nokia 920 and the 820, 620 all very impressive. a little bit of a pullback. barnes & noble is rallying that 5% will be bought. the stock is up 6 .3%.

>> it has compounded the shorts recently and held up very well in the face of amazon. i feel like i have new information because my new novel is out unhedged and of course being sold through barnes & noble. despite that i would stay away from this stock. i just think it is not very profitable being in the book publishing business unless you're a best selling book author and novelist. >> weis, name dropping is definitely not new but when you drop your own it's even better. >> i'm sorry. did you say something about "unhedged?" >> finally -- >> unhinged. >> yeah. ha ha. the trade that keeps on giving, the home builder up 370% this year. back in august you recommended this stock on this very program. stock is up 150% since that time. >> thank you. the stock has had a great run. i think what i saw about two weeks ago the ceo was selling some of the stock that signaled for us to get out.

we've taken some of our money off the table here. we look to re-enter at a lower level but we're not walking away from home builders at all. looking at a name like toll brothers tol, that's where you can put the money in the meantime until you look to hovnanian down in the 550 range. >> what was the name of the book? >> unhedged. >> unhinged. >> it is tremendous. john grisham is very jealous. he's thinking of hanging up the cleats. it's a new age. >> you heard it there first. as the cliff dive looks more likely yield is down 1.5 basis points today and now just above 1.7%. we'll go to the host of cnbc.com's "futures now." >> good afternoon. the action in treasuries confirms what we're seeing in stocks that investors are on the lookout for safe havens. the question now if you think we're going over the fiscal cliff should you get into bonds or is it too late? let's talk futures now. jim is at the cme in chicago

anthony at the nymex in new york. let's zoom out for a second. what does the cliff actually mean for treasuries? >> i think if we go over the cliff you're going to see treasuries a lot higher. we'll probably test about that 1.5% yield in that. if you look at what happened today they're talking about a mini deal. treasuries didn't even move. you would think there would be a selloff a little bit in the futures alone and there wasn't. the market is looking for something more substantial, a little more substance. they're also looking for some kind of talk about what they're going to do with the debt ceiling. until we get those things i still think you can be in treasuries. >> okay. looks like investors are going to pile in as long as the uncertainty is out there. jim, what about you? would you get into bonds here? >> no. not at all. actually i'm taking the other side. i adopted a negative bias yesterday because to me it still looks like a corrective channel from the big drop over the last couple weeks. now it certainly is testing my resolve as the markets tend to do but my stop out is about 13.09 on the up side. if it traded below 132.16 i'd

take it as a signal to sell more. i think we are going over the fiscal cliff and the market thinks so and sometime in the first year things get revolved retro act toiv 2012. the market is accustomed to that and learned to deal with it. >> now you know how our guys are making money but the question is how about you? are you buying treasuries into the cliff? head to futures now.cnbc.com. vote in our poll. make your voice heard ere. scott, back over to you. >> thanks so much. have a good weekend. see you on the other side. only one guy to go to on this. he is the author of "unhedged." >> "unhedged." >> what is the trade here? >> the trade is i don't want to be short treasuries at least in too big a fashion going into the fiscal cliff. but, man, that is going to be -- if they pop that is going to be the last hurrah. i want to get short both hands. >> all right. ahead on "halftime" a round of hold 'em or fold 'em with the year's biggest winners and losers but first we debate whether 2013 will finally give facebook investors gains. one stock two opinions. you know what's coming up. the silicon valley trail blazer

gives us her tech picks for the new year. ann winblad when we come back. next we cover the day's balances, the island reversals, breakouts and breakdowns in pops and drops. plus, they say the dumb money trades in the morning and the smart money trades into the close. we reveal what that smart money is buying and trading before that final bell tolls. ike a shadow of your former self? c'mon, michael! get in the game! [ male announcer ] don't have the hops for hoops with your buddies? lost your appetite for romance? and your mood is on its way down. you might not just be getting older. you might have a treatable condition called low testosterone or low t. millions of men, forty-five or older, may have low t. so talk to your doctor about low t. hey, michael! [ male announcer ] and step out of the shadows. hi! how are you? [ male announcer ] learn more at isitlowt.com. [ laughs ] hey!

investors are unfriending facebook today over reports the instagram unit lost nearly a quarter users over the recent photo sharing controversy. is the worst behind facebook? let's debate it. mike fmurphy our bull. steve weis our bear. you must be concerned about the instagram loss of users. >> the instagram news was very negative for facebook. but if you saw the boy genius had an article out this morning that said they've actually gained users. contradicting what the new york post said as far as losing users. when you look at facebook it is really a valuation call. from the $38 price target it has

come down south of 20. now you look at it and you're talking about revenues for next year. where are they going to generate revenues? we heard from zuckerberg who is growing into his role as a ceo. no longer a kid in a hoody but a guy running a multimillion dollar company. >> a married man. >> now you look for next year they expect north of $2 billion in revenue from their mobile apps. you look at the big kicker for next year and one of the main reasons i'm long facebook currently is their want buttons and gift buttons. when you're on facebook you click on a gift button and, bang. all of a sudden you send over to steven weis congratulating him on his new book. >> what is it called? >> unhinged. >> you send over a gift, starbucks gift card, bottle of wine, whoever it is they're part nerg with. this is a massive source of revenue for the company. they are going to be able to continue to grow revenue. we expect facebook to do over $7 billion in revenue for next year. trade agt 25. my call for next year is facebook will take out the ohio ipo price and look at a $38

price or better. >> you have to throw out the ipo price. that is not what the company is worth so is not even a benchmark. it is only a benchmark for the company screwing something up which was going at that price. >> it will be from a technical standpoint. >> forget about that. here are the issues. management has had misstep after misstep. privacy, they've started to alienate their customers. and the mobile advertising i actually went to advertise hedge on facebook. it is very complicated. number two it is unbelievably expensive. it is incredibly competitive. i don't know, everybody i asked who uses facebook said did you look at the ads? you sayer what ads or no? i tng is very tough. i don't want dois count a billion users but there is a long way to go from boy in the hoody to guy in a hoody or man in the hoody. andrew mason is also running a multi billion dollar company still there. i just think there is too much to prove and you are paying for

it right now with so many buy recommendations on the street. >> doc, who made the most compelling argument on facebook? >> well, again, i'm not a fan of facebook. i am out of it since the low 20s. so god bless all of you including pete who are still long here but i just don't buy the story and i don't think they hurt themselves as much with the instagram issue. i think again it is one of those things that brought them in front of people though as far as what the potential missteps could be and thus far they've had a lot. >> pete? >> i like the mobile ad revenue from last quarter. if they can do a couple quarters back to back i think we have a company on the move. the revenue stream from that finally going from zero to i believe it was something like 14% was impressive to me so i'm with murph on this one. steven you just couldn't convince me to get out. >> let's continue the conversation on facebook. in fact we'll add google, apple, amazon to the picture. they are the biggest and most talked about names as you know

in technology and much of their success next year will no doubt -- who has the right stuff? who better than ann winblad to tell us? she joins us live from san francisco. ann, welcome back to halftime. nice to see you. >> thanks. happy holidays. >> same to you. thanks so much. i'm not sure if you heard much of the previous conversation. our traders seem to be split at least where we come down on facebook. and it its prospects for the new year. where do you come down? >> the theater about facebook's inability to communicate its service agreements aside which they need to fix 2012 was a year where major enterprises tried to figure out what social media meant. how do they engage with it and how do they measure it? we'll look closely at how walmart did with their 2 billion ad purchase this last quarter. but what's happened around the cmos, there's been tons of investment for marketing information and customer engagement measurement. this will serve facebook very, very well as the enterprise

knows how to use this media in 2013. facebook did pull their mobile product this month and i think they are being very careful about that because it is a key ingredient for success next year. i think they'll come out very strong with that. >> so am i hearing that you're basically laying out a strategy as to why facebook's best days are in fact ahead? >> yes i am also behind the scenes facebook has integrated their facebook tools, delivered facebook tools for all the mobile platforms into about 200,000 mobile apps including 45% of the top ios apps. so they're developers behind the scenes. you don't see it publicly but they're building a great platform for their platform being integrated daily into all the apps that make up the mobile economy. >> let's try and give our viewers something to look toward in 2013. twitter for example.

when you look at a company like twitter and you look at the biggest players in technology, will twitter end 2013 as an independent company? if not, who is the most likely buyer out there? >> i believe twitter will stay independent and potentially become an ipo candidate. they've been smart to wait for all the reasons i just mentioned about facebook. you know, the maturation of the platform around the cmo. 2013 will be the year of the chief marketing officer. you've seen the acquisitions by oracle who just got newly issued eliquof. ibm bought about $40 billion of marketing innovation companies. we have made this a major investment areas. we pick companies like asymetrics, all growing very, very rapidly and serving the chief marketing officer. twitter and facebook will be huge beneficiaries here and twitter can be a very large

stand alone company in the social media space. where does amazon shake out in our discussion of technology companies that are going to be big winners next year? is bazos doing the right thing? is the strategy going to work sacrificing short-term earnings for example for say long-term gain? >> i think amazon is going to sneak up on the enterprise and be a shock to most of the enterprise software incumbents. i attended amazon's first developer conference a couple weeks ago and it was all about the enterprise. in 2012 the cloud took a small bite out of i.t. budgets. they'll take a large chomp out of i.t. budgets in 2013. we saw that with work day and even companies like guide wire. all cloud companies. the number of cloud companies that are private that are approaching a hundred million dollar revenues, that could be ipo candidates if we can hold our economy together in 2013 is significant. amazon plays a role with almost all of these companies.

also, the mobile employees are bringing mobile apps like box right into the enterprise as their consumer favorites become enterprise favorites and amazon gets dragged along too. >> let's turn our attention quickly past, i guess toward the post pc world. 2013 for del. in your estimation not to turn this into an m & a segment but it is somewhat unavoidable. somebody take out dell next year? >> well, it's a world of software defined everything. this is really changing strategies of companies from sysco to del. i think dell will be in its transformation still next year as they try to move to software defined everything versus hardware has more than commodity value. the same will be true of other companies. hp included in that set of companies. sysco is making the transformation. juniper. it's a big year for software.

if companies do not take software defined everything, software defined networks, storage, call centers, seriously, they won't be a participant in the i.t. economy. >> you're in the type of business where you either put big dollars behind a company or certainly your belief in companies. do you believe in what meg whitman is doing at hp? would you put a dime into that company at this point in time? >> hp is slightly opaque to me right now. i have a lot of confidence in meg. i've known her over the years and her work at ebay was fantastic. she has a lot of technology to work with. she's got some very slow moving parts at hp that she is going to have to decide what to do with. hp has made some forays into the cloud so they understand what software is. they have tons of developers but they have parts of their business that are -- need the

same transformation we're talking about with dell and sysco. >> great to have you on the show. have a happy and healthy new year. see you on the other side. >> thanks. >> ann winblad. weis? >> to me you have to separate what is happening in the fundamentals with companies versus what the market is paying for at stock price and amazon is to me egregiously over valued. facebook is all -- i'd rather pay up 10% knowing they are well into their strategy than sitting there watching stock go lower. >> who has another thought? >> i think just to mispoint if the market worked that way and you could say okay. everything is working right and it is 10% higher so i'll pay for it. facebook when it starts to get on a roll we'll be talking about the stock at 30, 31, 32 and then it's a tougher call do you jump in or wait for a pullback which you may never get. >> with a billion users i'm not going to guarantee it up 10% but i'd even be willing to pay 30 if i knew the strategy was getting traction. >> still to come this year's biggest winners and losers.

the traders tell you whether to hold 'em or fold 'em. and how to make money from the hottest trade in the world. details when we come back. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person.

[ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. i honestly loved smoking, and i honestly didn't think i would ever quit. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. it put me at ease that you could smoke on the first week. [ male announcer ] some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation,

depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these stop taking chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of depression or other mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix. don't take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these stop taking chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, tell your doctor if you have new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. with chantix and with the support system it worked. it worked for me. [ male announcer ] ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. good day, everybody. today on "power lunch" eye of the storm. just two hours before a key meeting at the white house, to members of congress for what it would take for them to sign off

on a package to avert the fiscal cliff. from shopping season to returns season. i've been doing a little bit of that. we'll show you why returns are expected to jump by more than 30% this year. the one thing, the one thing that could derail the social media powerhouses in 2013. find out what it is today on "power." meantime, "halftime report" returns after this. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data.

split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪

welcome back.

all eyes have been on the yen as it's been sinking versus the dollar hitting a fresh two-year low just today. lets gait your money in motion trade now. boris joins us from b.k. asset management. >> good to be with you. >> everybody in their brother it seems is getting on this train. >> yes. >> it's getting a little crowded, isn't it? >> it is getting a little crowded. i still like the trade. i think the trade is very sustainable into 2013. it is so grossly overbought on a daily level that i think it needs a little bit of room. i like the trade but i want to buy it down. i want to buy it at $85.50 with a stop at $84.50. stop at 86 but go out to 88. the fundamentals are in place. the one thing that can scuttle it is if we do fumble the fiscal cliff. if it becomes a problem and the u.s. goes off the rales, the dollar yen becomes in trouble. the japanese side of the equation will continuously

pressure the b.o.j. we'll probably try to target that 90 level that abbe wants by next year. that's how the trade sets up for now. >> boris, good to talk to you as always. i like the casual friday look. i hope we didn't drag you in this morning? >> no, you didn't, but i did have to shave for you guys. >> happy new year. we'll see you on the other side. >> we'll see you. >> don't forget to check out money in motion. it airs on cnbc at 5:30 eastern. time to play a little year end hold 'em or fold 'em. let's start with the good ones, fellas. the year's biggest dow gainers. there they are, home depot, jpmorgan, bank of america. >> hold 'em, hold 'em, hold 'em, all of 'em. >> all three. >> you must like home depot if you like the home builders. >> love home depot. love jpmorgan. bank of america we're out of. >> take a look at the losers. we'll discuss those.

kick those around the horn a little bit. hello? losers. there they are. >> i thought you were going to show a picture of us. hello, losers. >> hp -- mcdonald's. let's take mcdonald's. maybe the most interesting heading into next year. >> i would hold this one. i love mcdonald's down here at these levels, judge. if you've been waiting to get into this one, i think this one works regardless of how we come out of this fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling. >> 3.5% dividend. what about hp? >> just don't go near it. there are so many better horses to play in the space, why gamble on it. it's cheap on an earnings basis but it's not very exciting. >> any takers on intel? >> i still like intel, sure. >> why? >> i'm one of the believers still that the pc world has not gone completely past us. you're starting to see more and more folks come to that conclusion. >> you still use a quill and an ink well. >> there's still some stuff working.

>> what would make you think that? >> they've got a dividend yield, a great cash position. i don't think they are dead. they are very, very late but they're getting themselves in there. they're so big i think they can get themselves positioned actually. >> i'd be cautious of mcdonald's. we're seeing up and down same store sales. >> final trades are up next. >> announcer: "money in motion" sponsored by fxcm. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want.

fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. mine was earned off vietnam in 1968. over the south pacific in 1943.

i got mine in iraq, 2003. usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection, and because usaa's commitment to serve the military, veterans and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. and you see the woman you fell in love with. she's everything to you. but your erectile dysfunction - that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess with cialis.